Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0dba…9b6a crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-5%) realized −$38 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%86W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$45
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$37
other 26% −$7
sports 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.4% -9.9% 66% 66% -9.5%
≤30d 136 -7.2% -16.0% 63% 58% -15.9%
≤90d 136 -7.2% -16.0% 63% 58% -15.9%
all 136 -7.2% -16.0% 63% 58% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 58% -15.9%
10% -24.0% 50% -23.9%
15% -31.4% 35% -31.3%
20% -38.1% 26% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses86 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 82¢ 100¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$22 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$17 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $13 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.53 · official $31.53 (match) · 255 history records