Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dba…73c2 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$82 (-7%) realized −$81 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$291
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$86
other 13% +$3
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% +$2
culture 1% +$2
politics 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -31.9% -38.4% 25% 25% -41.7%
≤90d 15 +11.5% +0.9% 80% 60% -17.2%
all 21 +3.6% -6.3% 81% 43% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 43% -17.1%
10% -15.3% 24% -25.1%
15% -23.5% 14% -32.3%
20% -31.0% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$114 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage170d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $101 −$99 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $196 −$193 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $156 −$154 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $138 +$237 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on March 14? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 16 $12 +$1 +13%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 16 $12 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on March 13? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 16 $18 $0 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? May 16 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 16 $31 +$31 +101%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 16 $61 +$21 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 16 $54 +$45 +83%
Magic vs. Pistons May 16 $82 +$23 +27%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? Mar 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +1%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Feb 03 $26 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 9? Jan 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? Jan 08 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $72 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 24¢ $101 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 45¢ $196 13d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 40¢ $156 22d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY PlayTime 36¢ $138 27d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $54 38d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch BUY DN SOOPers Challengers 74¢ $61 40d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $82 50d
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) BUY Celtics 49¢ $31 53d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 61d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $12 86d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $18 89d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 96d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on March 14? BUY No 99¢ $12 96d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? BUY Yes $9 105d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $12 109d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $18 127d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $26 144d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $21 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 160d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $25 160d
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.93 · official $70.93 (match) · 39 history records