Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dbe…a0d0 other 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$3
other 23% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 10 +1.4% -8.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 10 +1.4% -8.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
all 32 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -22.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -30.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage462d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $33 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 07 $9 $0 +3%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 French Open? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Jaguars draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 29 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $13 $0 +4%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $27 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $27 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $15 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $33 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $32 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $32 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $27 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $9 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $35 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records