Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dbf…1103 sports 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$757 (+15%) realized +$763 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$145
14 days+$1,006
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$483
other 16% +$38
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.7% -19.2% 56% 44% -2.1%
≤30d 39 -2.7% -11.9% 38% 36% -3.2%
≤90d 58 -16.6% -24.5% 33% 31% +0.5%
all 58 -16.6% -24.5% 33% 31% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 31% +0.5%
10% -31.8% 31% -9.1%
15% -38.4% 26% -17.9%
20% -44.4% 24% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$34 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$763
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 39
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage50d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $207 +$56 +27%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 +$63 +50%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$15 +95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$83 +55%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,078 +$95 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$10 -32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $75 −$73 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $85 +$223 +260%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $51 +$70 +136%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $878 +$236 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $39 +$102 +262%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $56 +$33 +58%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $97 +$206 +212%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 +$7 +131%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $65 −$29 -44%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $2 +$1 +26%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $16 −$1 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $30 +$14 +48%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $48 −$12 -25%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 24 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? May 24 $21 −$7 -32%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $75 −$73 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $22 −$22 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $61 −$60 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $357 −$350 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $158 −$155 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $5 −$1 -27%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$56 +550%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $279 +$358 +128%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $123 −$70 -57%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $51 −$20 -39%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 14 $10 +$8 +74%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 14 $10 +$25 +250%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $133 +$193 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $263 10m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $207 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 45h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 32¢ $82 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $1,002 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 57¢ $110 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $41 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 13¢ $31 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 26¢ $3 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $308 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 20¢ $14 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 29¢ $71 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 54¢ $121 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 22¢ $51 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $2 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $501 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 86¢ $151 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.34 · official $62.34 (match) · 193 history records