Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dc3…c454 crypto 1009 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized −$63 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%560W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$143
other 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -45.4% -50.6% 33% 0% -80.3%
≤30d 458 -6.3% -15.3% 42% 42% -11.2%
≤90d 854 -4.8% -13.8% 55% 43% -11.2%
all 1007 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 43% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 30% -20.1%
15% -30.2% 26% -27.9%
20% -37.1% 10% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses560 / 447
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1007 / 1009
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1007 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$3 -42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$4 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$2 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$2 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$2 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $0 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.11 · official $99.11 (match) · 3500 history records