Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dc5…a303 crypto 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,384 (-7%) realized −$14,258 · open +$874
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%107W / 244L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10,124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,600
7 days−$41,112
14 days−$41,310
30 days−$38,432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$48
crypto 23% −$12,372
sports 6% −$3,367
other 3% −$1,474
finance 0% +$260
economics 0% −$25
politics 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -79.6% -81.5% 7% 6% -60.7%
≤30d 206 -77.2% -79.3% 9% 8% -53.0%
≤90d 243 -58.5% -62.5% 18% 16% -23.0%
all 351 -30.1% -36.8% 30% 28% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 28% -19.3%
10% -42.8% 24% -27.0%
15% -48.3% 21% -34.1%
20% -53.4% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -81% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$404 vs −$250 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$10,124
Realized−$14,258
Unrealized+$874
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses107 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions18
Markets (closed)351 / 373
History coverage160d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $1,784 $2,905 +$1,121 (+63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $946 $1,946 +$1,000 (+106%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 73¢ 86¢ $1,172 $1,382 +$210 (+18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 28¢ 28¢ $997 $997 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 24¢ 21¢ $1,000 $843 −$157 (-16%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 41¢ $1,000 $628 −$372 (-37%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $295 $272 −$23 (-8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $250 $232 −$18 (-7%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $332 $174 −$158 (-48%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $129 $117 −$12 (-10%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $450 $112 −$338 (-75%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 27¢ 13¢ $170 $82 −$88 (-52%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $153 $76 −$76 (-50%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 69¢ 87¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $322 $13 −$309 (-96%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 65¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $144 −$140 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $463 +$1,047 +226%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $845 −$830 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ assists Jun 16 $74 −$72 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,216 −$1,199 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $265 −$260 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $201 −$198 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $8,698 −$3,012 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 9PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 9PM ET Jun 14 $93 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 12PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 7PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1AM ET Jun 14 $64 +$81 +126%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 2PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 9PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$21 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 2AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$16 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 11PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$96 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $150 40m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $100 42m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $50 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $350 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $600 59m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $300 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $197 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $250 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $50 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY 2¢ $50 35h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $144 35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 2¢ $103 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 11¢ $154 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 44h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $463 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $814 46h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $74 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $658 47h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 47h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 47h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $265 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $201 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $2,598 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $170 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $18 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,900 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,484 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,447 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,124.05 · official $10,124.05 (match) · 1622 history records