Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dc6…9889 sports 73 markets active 1d ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$194,745 (-42%) realized −$194,745 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,316per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1,522est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,575
7 days−$9,575
14 days+$12,396
30 days−$5,944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$121,113
other 12% −$57,299
crypto 5% −$16,694
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -66.6% -69.8% 17% 17% -38.8%
≤30d 13 -29.0% -35.7% 31% 31% -16.9%
≤90d 60 -56.3% -60.4% 18% 18% -74.4%
all 73 -38.2% -44.1% 29% 29% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.1% 29% -48.5%
10% ← realistic here -49.5% 25% -53.4%
15% -54.4% 18% -57.9%
20% -58.8% 18% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$5,492) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -41% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
32.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,292 vs −$5,889 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$194,745
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,522
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage589d
Avg bet$6,316
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $9,975 +$10,025 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $3,908 −$3,850 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $5,275 −$5,200 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $3,063 −$3,000 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $1,380 −$1,350 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $6,271 −$6,200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4,300 +$15,700 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5,492 +$1,383 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15,112 +$4,888 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $3,499 −$3,440 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $5,839 −$5,700 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $12,348 −$4,200 -34%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $973 +$4,027 +414%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 11 $2,086 +$2,914 +140%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 11 $1,784 +$3,216 +180%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $1,242 −$1,226 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 09 $793 −$777 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $2,237 −$2,200 -98%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $2,036 −$2,000 -98%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $1,935 −$1,900 -98%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $667 −$650 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $2,036 −$2,000 -98%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 09 $2,287 −$2,250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 03 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 03 $110 +$101 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 03 $592 −$580 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 03 $2,418 −$2,418 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 03 $4,039 −$4,039 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 03 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 03 $534 −$534 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 03 $1,290 −$1,068 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 03 $947 −$947 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 03 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 02 $1,555 +$1,987 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 02 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 02 $942 −$939 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 02 $920 −$920 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 02 $643 −$643 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 02 $1,482 +$518 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 02 $104 −$104 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) May 02 $5,002 −$5,002 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel May 02 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main May 02 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) May 02 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) May 02 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Big Game: Coin Toss May 02 $8,016 −$8,016 -100%
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) May 02 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) May 02 $13,000 −$13,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $208 31h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $24 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $3 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $3 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $6 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $10 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $1 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $19 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $2 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $3 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $10 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $1 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $10 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $1 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $38 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $10 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $8 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $72 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $96 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $5 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $78 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $288 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $89 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $3 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $96 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $2 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $10 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $174 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $1 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2437 history records