Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dcb…8d7c world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2
other 31% $0
finance 7% −$1
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 24 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage452d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $34 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $35 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $33 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $33 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $28 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $22 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $34 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records