Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dcc…d287 politics 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%82W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$10
other 26% +$6
sports 13% −$1
crypto 8% +$3
world 6% −$10
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 17% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 79 -0.6% -10.1% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 147 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -10.1%
all 274 +3.1% -6.7% 30% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -15.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -23.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -31.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses82 / 192
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 274
History coverage144d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 22 $41 −$7 -17%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $43 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $17 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 06 $33 −$1 -2%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $70 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 02 $70 −$3 -4%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 55m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 55m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $42 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 9h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 12h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 7d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 7d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $5 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 8d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $6 8d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $6 8d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1598 history records