Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0dcc…031e sports 1462 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,840 (-5%) realized −$1,789 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%435W / 1003L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$77
14 days+$152
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,441
other 17% −$273
world 9% −$105
politics 3% −$90
tech 1% −$152
crypto 1% −$4
economics 0% −$11
finance 0% −$7
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +23.0% +11.3% 43% 29% -2.4%
≤30d 156 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 33% -15.3%
≤90d 839 -8.4% -17.1% 33% 24% -18.3%
all 1438 -6.2% -15.1% 30% 21% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 21% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 17% -23.2%
15% -30.6% 10% -30.7%
20% -37.4% 6% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized−$1,789
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses435 / 1003
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1438 / 1462
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 1438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 77¢ 86¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+40%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 26¢ 29¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 73¢ 56¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $7 −$33 (-83%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $5 −$35 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4% Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Levante UD vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $0 +$3 +620%
Will Levante UD vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$14 +65%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 18 $420 −$6 -1%
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 18 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $17 −$3 -18%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 18 $18 −$6 -32%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $12 −$2 -19%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 −$31 -76%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 −$31 -76%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 −$18 -44%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $41 −$11 -26%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$42 +237%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 +$46 +165%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 +$42 +102%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$39 +97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$18 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$5 +12%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 06 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $3 $0 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $6 −$5 -76%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $12 $0 -3%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el Jun 05 $29 −$25 -83%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +22%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $11 −$1 -11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series Jun 04 $26 +$3 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $12 −$3 -22%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $16 −$7 -47%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $10 +$1 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $31 −$7 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $27 4h
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating SELL No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 12¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 2d
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL No 37¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $23 2d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 8d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 20¢ $2 14d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 30¢ $3 14d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 31¢ $3 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 SELL Over 10¢ $2 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $12 15d
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 9¢ $5 15d
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el BUY No 52¢ $29 15d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 15d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $40 15d
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating BUY No 98¢ $10 15d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.16 · official $601.18 (match) · 3500 history records