Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dd1…42ce sports 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$292 (+1%) realized +$831 · open −$539
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate75%83W / 28L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day158.0pace
Fees−$407est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$444
7 days+$99
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$454
crypto 12% +$1
world 7% −$180
weather 5% −$158
other 4% −$524
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 24% -9.3%
≤30d 111 -4.3% -13.4% 75% 24% -9.2%
≤90d 111 -4.3% -13.4% 75% 24% -9.2%
all 111 -4.3% -13.4% 75% 24% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 24% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 8% -17.9%
15% -29.2% 4% -25.8%
20% -36.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$79 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$785
Realized+$831
Unrealized−$539
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses83 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$407
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage7d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day158.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $686 $702 +$16 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 84¢ 69¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ $539 $0 −$538 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $1,470 +$17 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $813 −$613 -75%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $340 +$122 +36%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $117 +$32 +28%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $235 +$21 +9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $303 −$208 -69%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $13 −$5 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $228 +$210 +92%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $365 +$51 +14%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $139 +$61 +44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $304 +$46 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $331 +$39 +12%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $558 +$82 +15%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play Jun 15 $130 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $244 +$46 +19%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $328 −$40 -12%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $287 −$7 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $338 +$16 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $187 +$15 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $227 +$22 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $406 +$44 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $286 +$11 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,670 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,017 +$23 +2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $121 −$121 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $175 +$5 +3%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $98 +$12 +13%
BC Neptunas Klaipeda vs. BC Lietkabelis Panevezys Jun 14 $21 −$1 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $458 +$42 +9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $390 +$90 +23%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $363 +$27 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4,423 −$186 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $650 −$12 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,572 +$224 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $676 +$12 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $694 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $100 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $794 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $544 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $545 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $148 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $615 8h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 96¢ $38 8h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 77¢ $15 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 77¢ $45 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 77¢ $1 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 82¢ $25 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 79¢ $7 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 67¢ $20 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 67¢ $100 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 97¢ $257 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 71¢ $95 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 24¢ $95 10h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $79 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 11h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $64 12h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 79¢ $16 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $785.40 · official $785.41 (match) · 1266 history records