Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0dd5…7164 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$3 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$5
crypto 18% $0
tech 12% +$2
economics 10% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.5% -16.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 6 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 0% -9.0%
all 14 -1.3% -10.7% 64% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -8.7%
10% -19.2% 0% -17.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage235d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $65 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -22%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 $0 -7%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Feb 09 $5 −$1 -13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 09 $15 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $10 +$1 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Jan 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Jan 12 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $19 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $19 25d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $19 25d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $19 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 27d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $30 27d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 94¢ $28 59d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $28 96d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 96d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 96d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 138d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 68¢ $4 138d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 85¢ $11 138d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 78¢ $5 149d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 91¢ $5 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 166d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 166d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 69¢ $5 166d
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 234d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 98¢ $1 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.32 · official $26.32 (match) · 67 history records