Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0D 0x0dd6…dbd5 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$34 (+26%) realized +$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+35.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+49.4%	+35.2%	100%	100%	+24.2%
≤30d	3	+49.4%	+35.2%	100%	100%	+24.2%
≤90d	3	+49.4%	+35.2%	100%	100%	+24.2%
all	3	+49.4%	+35.2%	100%	100%	+24.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+35.2%	100%	+24.2%
10%	+22.2%	67%	+12.3%
15%	+10.4%	67%	+1.5%
20%	-0.4%	67%	-8.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +49% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	Jun 21	$76	+$15	+20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$35	+$18	+52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 21	$20	+$15	+76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	99¢	$91	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	82¢	$76	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$54	2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	65¢	$35	3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$36	3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	56¢	$20	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records