Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dd8…1f0e sports 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$252
14 days−$252
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$83
crypto 35% +$226
other 15% −$104
world 3% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -34.6% -40.8% 36% 36% -38.9%
≤30d 22 -34.6% -40.8% 36% 36% -38.9%
≤90d 22 -34.6% -40.8% 36% 36% -38.9%
all 24 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 38% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 38% -9.2%
10% -39.5% 38% -17.9%
15% -45.4% 38% -25.8%
20% -50.7% 29% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$33 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage369d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$21 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 +$22 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$33 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$13 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $32 +$36 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 +$46 +101%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$44 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $37 +$16 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jun 23 $190 +$267 +140%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? Jun 11 $180 −$11 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $29 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $26 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $23 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $23 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $46 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $32 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $46 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $37 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $61 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $61 3d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $457 358d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 41¢ $190 370d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? SELL No 64¢ $169 370d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? BUY No 68¢ $180 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records