Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0de0…6358 sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$429 (-12%) realized −$379 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%54W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days+$63
14 days+$103
30 days−$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$185
politics 33% −$404
other 13% +$212
crypto 10% +$23
world 7% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 40% -1.6%
≤30d 103 -21.1% -28.6% 35% 35% -26.9%
≤90d 150 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 36% -20.7%
all 150 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 36% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 36% -20.7%
10% -19.7% 35% -28.3%
15% -27.4% 33% -35.2%
20% -34.6% 32% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$20 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$379
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses54 / 96
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)150 / 157
History coverage46d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $180 $123 −$57 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $132 −$130 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$58 +188%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $51 +$41 +80%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $66 −$60 -91%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $41 +$49 +121%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$24 +230%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $10 +$14 +139%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $10 +$14 +136%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $112 +$192 +171%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$38 +75%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 12 $6 +$6 +100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 11 $15 +$18 +116%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$38 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 54m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $3 8h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 47¢ $5 16h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 52¢ $5 17h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 17h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 51¢ $20 17h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 56¢ $51 17h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 55¢ $51 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 41¢ $20 23h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 27h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 87¢ $16 37h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 32¢ $5 37h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL Hanwha Eagles 15¢ $5 37h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 79¢ $19 37h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 32¢ $5 38h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 58¢ $10 38h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 32¢ $5 39h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 45¢ $5 40h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 47¢ $5 40h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 48¢ $5 40h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 47¢ $5 40h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 47¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.16 · official $229.49 · 396 history records