Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0de0…0884 sports 339 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,591 (-3%) realized −$7,542 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate64%214W / 121L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$644per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$498
other 28% −$6,952
politics 4% −$52
finance 0% −$36
world 0% −$57
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.6% +27.2% 100% 50% +27.2%
≤30d 2 +40.6% +27.2% 100% 50% +27.2%
≤90d 2 +40.6% +27.2% 100% 50% +27.2%
all 335 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 33% -12.4%
10% -20.1% 20% -20.7%
15% -27.8% 14% -28.4%
20% -34.9% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$822) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$295 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$591
Realized−$7,542
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses214 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)335 / 339
History coverage225d
Avg bet$644
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $303 $284 −$18 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $138 $137 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 +$9 +8%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 +$75 +73%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Mar 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Cap Cana: Roberto Bautista Agut vs David Goffin Mar 12 $110 +$6 +5%
Phoenix: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Kamil Majchrzak Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Santiago: Gonzalo Bueno vs Franco Agamenone Mar 12 $119 +$1 +1%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Mar 11 $116 +$2 +2%
Austin: Kimberly Birrell vs Kamilla Rakhimova Mar 11 $50 +$14 +28%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen Mar 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Cap Cana: Cristian Garin vs Dalibor Svrcina Mar 11 $99 +$1 +1%
BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal Mar 10 $150 −$150 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Casper Ruud Mar 10 $50 +$52 +104%
BNP Paribas Open: Maria Sakkari vs Iga Swiatek Mar 10 $127 +$20 +16%
BNP Paribas Open: Coco Gauff vs Alexandra Eala Mar 09 $200 −$200 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Marton Fucsovics vs Arthur Fils Mar 09 $100 +$4 +4%
BNP Paribas Open: Emma Raducanu vs Amanda Anisimova Mar 09 $100 +$6 +6%
BNP Paribas Open: Camila Osorio vs Naomi Osaka Mar 08 $200 +$78 +39%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $187 +$2 +1%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $253 +$34 +14%
Antalya 2: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Anhelina Kalinina Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Hersonissos: Harry Wendelken vs Toby Samuel Mar 08 $278 $0 +0%
BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Taylor Fritz Mar 08 $82 +$4 +5%
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Donna Vekic Mar 08 $80 +$13 +16%
BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Diane Parry Mar 08 $75 +$24 +32%
BNP Paribas Open: Kayla Day vs Iga Swiatek Mar 07 $130 +$3 +2%
BNP Paribas Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Ashlyn Krueger Mar 07 $430 −$326 -76%
BNP Paribas Open: Katie Volynets vs Jelena Ostapenko Mar 07 $100 +$30 +30%
BNP Paribas Open: Sonay Kartal vs Emma Navarro Mar 07 $10 −$5 -47%
BNP Paribas Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Corentin Moutet Mar 07 $466 +$69 +15%
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud Mar 07 $450 +$16 +4%
Brasilia: Henrique Rocha vs Thiago Monteiro Mar 07 $100 +$85 +85%
Hersonissos: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Harry Wendelken Mar 07 $349 +$16 +4%
BNP Paribas Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov Mar 07 $50 +$8 +15%
BNP Paribas Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Marton Fucsovics Mar 07 $213 +$16 +7%
BNP Paribas Open: Gael Monfils vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Mar 07 $328 +$13 +4%
BNP Paribas Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Jasmine Paolini Mar 07 $270 +$59 +22%
BNP Paribas Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Frances Tiafoe Mar 07 $251 +$18 +7%
BNP Paribas Open: Coco Gauff vs Kamilla Rakhimova Mar 07 $229 +$22 +10%
BNP Paribas Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Clara Tauson Mar 06 $211 +$2 +1%
Thionville: Sebastian Ofner vs Jurij Rodionov Mar 06 $175 +$36 +21%
Brasilia: Thiago Monteiro vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Mar 06 $156 +$19 +12%
Brasilia: Henrique Rocha vs Juan Carlos Prado Mar 06 $145 +$11 +7%
Thionville: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Jan Choinski Mar 06 $50 +$4 +9%
Kigali: Joel Schwaerzler vs Marco Cecchinato Mar 06 $50 +$6 +12%
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Sho Shimabukuro Mar 05 $123 +$12 +10%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $112 +$11 +10%
BNP Paribas Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarino Mar 05 $8 −$8 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Chun-Hsin Mar 04 $60 −$14 -24%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Lanlana Tararudee Mar 03 $116 +$16 +14%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Shintaro Mochizuki Mar 03 $105 +$13 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $112 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $142 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $208 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $178 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 10d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 10d
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper BUY Novak Djokovic 62¢ $115 98d
Cap Cana: Roberto Bautista Agut vs David Goffin SELL Roberto Bautista Agut 100¢ $115 98d
Cap Cana: Roberto Bautista Agut vs David Goffin BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 95¢ $110 98d
Phoenix: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 8¢ $10 98d
Santiago: Gonzalo Bueno vs Franco Agamenone SELL Gonzalo Bueno 100¢ $120 98d
Santiago: Gonzalo Bueno vs Franco Agamenone BUY Gonzalo Bueno 99¢ $119 98d
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud SELL Carlos Alcaraz 100¢ $119 98d
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud BUY Carlos Alcaraz 98¢ $116 98d
Austin: Kimberly Birrell vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 41¢ $64 98d
Austin: Kimberly Birrell vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 32¢ $50 98d
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $102 98d
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen BUY Daniil Medvedev 98¢ $100 98d
Cap Cana: Cristian Garin vs Dalibor Svrcina SELL Dalibor Svrcina 100¢ $100 98d
Cap Cana: Cristian Garin vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 99¢ $99 98d
BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal BUY Madison Keys 88¢ $100 100d
BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal BUY Madison Keys 78¢ $50 100d
BNP Paribas Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Casper Ruud SELL Casper Ruud 100¢ $102 100d
BNP Paribas Open: Maria Sakkari vs Iga Swiatek SELL Iga Swiatek 100¢ $147 100d
BNP Paribas Open: Maria Sakkari vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 97¢ $27 100d
BNP Paribas Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 49¢ $50 100d
BNP Paribas Open: Maria Sakkari vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 84¢ $100 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $591.33 · official $591.33 (match) · 1034 history records