Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0de2…2ada crypto 1045 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-4%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%698W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$35
14 days−$45
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$103
sports 9% +$1
other 7% −$32
world 3% −$7
politics 1% −$4
tech 1% −$11
economics 1% +$6
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -3.9% -13.1% 87% 9% -12.2%
≤30d 453 -5.4% -14.4% 83% 23% -12.3%
≤90d 626 -6.7% -15.6% 76% 25% -13.3%
all 1045 -5.9% -14.8% 67% 31% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 31% -13.4%
10% -23.0% 18% -21.7%
15% -30.4% 12% -29.2%
20% -37.2% 9% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses698 / 347
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1045 / 1045
History coverage136d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1045 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3127 history records