Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0de3…d47a world 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$959 (-4%) realized −$961 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate80%51W / 13L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$26
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$604
crypto 13% −$356
other 7% +$28
politics 3% −$2
economics 3% +$1
sports 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +6.8% -3.4% 60% 40% -3.7%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 22% -9.2%
all 64 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 6% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 6% -13.2%
10% -21.1% 2% -21.5%
15% -28.8% 0% -29.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$107 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$961
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses51 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage203d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $103 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 27 $99 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $74 +$16 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $76 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 12 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 12 $76 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 13 $72 −$25 -35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $195 +$2 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 12 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $97 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 10 $96 −$3 -3%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $193 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $1,898 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $478 −$2 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 02 $855 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $2 $0 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $26 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $672 −$664 -99%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $499 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $1,879 +$15 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $3,217 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Feb 25 $117 −$117 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 24 $1,905 +$4 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $1,386 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $484 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $123 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $240 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $93 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $243 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 14 $122 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $121 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 13 $242 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 10 $119 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 10 $358 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $121 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $370 −$2 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $492 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $124 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $848 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 05 $452 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 04 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $122 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 03 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $111 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $332 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 01 $214 −$1 -0%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Jan 31 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $118 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $103 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $99 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $99 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $74 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 84¢ $75 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $76 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $73 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $73 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $77 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $76 44d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $77 46d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $76 70d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 34¢ $47 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 51¢ $38 75d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 51¢ $13 75d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 52¢ $21 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $100 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $98 76d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $0 76d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $0 76d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 76d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $94 95d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 95d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $26 95d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $5 95d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $24 95d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $43 95d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 96¢ $52 97d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 96¢ $45 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.00 · official $105.00 (match) · 440 history records