Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0D 0x0de4…b96d other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$50 (-25%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$435
sports 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+59.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +76.8% +59.9% 33% 33% +182.8%
≤30d 6 +76.8% +59.9% 33% 33% +182.8%
≤90d 6 +76.8% +59.9% 33% 33% +182.8%
all 6 +76.8% +59.9% 33% 33% +182.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.9% 33% +182.8%
10% +44.6% 33% +155.7%
15% +30.7% 33% +131.0%
20% +17.8% 33% +108.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +212% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +212% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$12 · ×19.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.65 per $1 lost it wins $9.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 +$77 +76%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $51 +$403 +784%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records