Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0de6…9933 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$205 (-0%) realized −$241 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%72W / 69L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$2,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$68
14 days+$94
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$125
crypto 15% +$7
finance 8% +$8
sports 5% −$426
world 3% −$14
tech 0% +$2
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -47.4% -52.4% 28% 5% -9.0%
≤30d 87 -33.2% -39.5% 46% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 141 -28.5% -35.3% 51% 5% -10.5%
all 141 -28.5% -35.3% 51% 5% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 5% -10.5%
10% -41.5% 5% -19.1%
15% -47.1% 4% -26.9%
20% -52.3% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$2,034
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses72 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions49
Markets (closed)141 / 127
History coverage63d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,807 $1,807 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+55%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+46%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $18 +$17 (+1007%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+35%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+719%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+671%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+605%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$6 (+341%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+251%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+137%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $877 +$20 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $20 +$80 +388%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $995 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,095 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $803 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 +$91 +982%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,295 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $604 +$62 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $933 +$11 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,808 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $897 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $997 9h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $995 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 16h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 16h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $127 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $82 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,034.21 · official $2,034.32 (match) · 519 history records