Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0de7…5fdf politics 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
politics 29% $0
other 14% +$1
crypto 6% +$1
culture 5% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 +0.0% -9.5% 24% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 +0.0% -9.5% 24% 0% -9.6%
all 69 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage332d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $110 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $28 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be b Aug 10 $38 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 10 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $6 $0 -0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $12 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 27 $1 $0 -12%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $37 +$1 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 27 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $28 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $25 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records