Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0de8…6cf3 sports 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,774 (-6%) realized −$3,773 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%31W / 85L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1,267est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$12,864
crypto 3% −$751
world 1% −$148
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -38.8% -44.6% 30% 30% -57.0%
≤30d 41 +13.8% +2.9% 32% 32% -25.4%
≤90d 116 -8.3% -17.1% 27% 26% -32.4%
all 116 -8.3% -17.1% 27% 26% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 26% -32.4%
10% -25.0% 25% -38.9%
15% -32.2% 22% -44.8%
20% -38.9% 21% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$620) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$663 vs −$404 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3,773
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses31 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,267
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage82d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3,413 −$3,260 -96%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,982 +$1,455 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +205%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,547 −$1,518 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $260 −$247 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $211 −$200 -95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $48 +$161 +336%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $106 +$684 +645%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $157 −$1 -1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $657 −$620 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $408 −$385 -94%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,001 −$980 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $1,118 −$1,094 -98%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $1,478 −$363 -24%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $401 −$392 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $500 −$488 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $943 −$931 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1,523 +$1,384 +91%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $1,370 +$1,168 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $27 −$25 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $3,042 +$1,344 +44%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $510 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $211 −$200 -95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $813 −$97 -12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $255 +$473 +185%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $511 +$1,257 +246%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $492 −$462 -94%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $93 +$1,105 +1194%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $226 −$220 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $189 −$185 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $940 −$600 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +32%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $438 −$430 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $445 −$435 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 12 $65 +$382 +591%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 12 $869 +$1,190 +137%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 11 $292 −$287 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 06 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challenge May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner May 05 $1,487 −$1,465 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $272 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,047 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,047 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,047 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,437 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $928 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,054 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1,210 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $106 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 3d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $336 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $33 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 32¢ $1 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $211 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 92¢ $209 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 19¢ $48 7d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 43¢ $49 7d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $42 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.54 (match) · 223 history records