Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0ded…9025 sports 900 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,490 (+114%) realized +$27,535 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%459W / 415L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$4,502
sports 30% −$128
other 26% +$2,173
culture 7% +$186
world 2% +$216
crypto 1% +$249
economics 1% −$220
finance 0% +$51
tech 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +36.4% +23.4% 67% 46% +27.1%
≤30d 92 +38.7% +25.5% 67% 50% +32.9%
≤90d 585 +17.2% +6.0% 52% 45% +15.1%
all 874 +27.0% +14.9% 53% 45% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 45% +18.1%
10% +3.9% 42% +6.8%
15% -6.2% 39% -3.5%
20% -15.4% 36% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$14 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized+$27,535
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses459 / 415
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions26
Markets (closed)874 / 900
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 874 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 90¢ 92¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 54¢ 48¢ $71 $62 −$9 (-13%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 52¢ 55¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+5%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 33¢ 40¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+20%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 73¢ 87¢ $36 $44 +$7 (+19%)
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 75¢ 79¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will the announcers say "History" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match? No 18¢ 19¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+6%)
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 68¢ 76¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+12%)
Will the announcers say "Barcelona" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Will the announcers say "History" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 17¢ 18¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? No 62¢ 53¢ $37 $32 −$5 (-15%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup Match? No 14¢ 16¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+18%)
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? No 54¢ 46¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-13%)
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 54¢ 35¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-35%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the median home value in the DC Metro area be less than $554,000 on June 30? No 14¢ 8¢ $34 $20 −$15 (-43%)
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 86¢ 53¢ $26 $16 −$10 (-38%)
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 80¢ 50¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-38%)
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 62¢ 49¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match? No 63¢ 26¢ $19 $8 −$11 (-58%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match? No 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 48¢ 66¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 93¢ 51¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Jun 26 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Jun 26 $44 +$146 +335%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World C Jun 26 $26 +$2 +9%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Jun 26 $21 +$9 +41%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl Jun 26 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wo Jun 26 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Ecuador vs Germany FI Jun 26 $19 +$10 +54%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Jun 26 $26 +$34 +133%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Ecuador vs Germa Jun 26 $17 +$4 +22%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 26 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 25 $32 +$17 +54%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the South Africa vs South Kor Jun 25 $18 +$12 +67%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA W Jun 25 $13 +$17 +138%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Worl Jun 25 $56 +$4 +6%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the South Africa vs S Jun 25 $12 +$5 +43%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wor Jun 25 $16 +$14 +85%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Ecuador v Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the announcers say "Mexico" 5+ times during the South Africa vs S Jun 25 $24 +$6 +25%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor Jun 25 $8 +$4 +53%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Czechia v Jun 25 $23 +$7 +28%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor Jun 25 $1 $0 +47%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 25 $36 +$152 +429%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Birthday" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wor Jun 25 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 25 $15 +$175 +1150%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Switzerland vs C Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the South Afr Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Switzerland vs Canada FI Jun 24 $28 +$12 +45%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 24 $40 +$36 +92%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Switzerland vs Canada FI Jun 24 $14 +$16 +113%
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 24 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA W Jun 24 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 24 $112 +$38 +34%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Switzerla Jun 24 $32 +$6 +20%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Japan vs Sweden F Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF Jun 24 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Worl Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $1 +$3 +233%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the South Africa vs South Kore Jun 24 $14 +$9 +60%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Portugal vs Uzbekista Jun 24 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Worl Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Worl Jun 24 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Jun 23 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Portugal vs Uzbekist Jun 23 $28 +$92 +335%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY No 6¢ $2 6m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Jordan vs Argentina F BUY Yes 32¢ $19 8m
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia BUY No 63¢ $19 45m
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY No 33¢ $39 1h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wor BUY No 17¢ $32 1h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY Yes 53¢ $19 1h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY Yes 53¢ $22 1h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World BUY No 52¢ $53 1h
Will the announcers say "History" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FI BUY No 18¢ $38 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Panama vs England BUY No 68¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Panama vs England BUY No 68¢ $29 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Norway vs France FIFA Wor BUY No 14¢ $27 1h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 47¢ $13 2h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 90¢ $54 2h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo BUY Yes 75¢ $33 3h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo BUY Yes 75¢ $4 3h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 48¢ $3 3h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 47¢ $11 3h
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY No 42¢ $10 3h
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY No 63¢ $19 4h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Jordan vs Argenti BUY Yes 40¢ $20 4h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World BUY No 23¢ $5 4h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World BUY No 23¢ $0 4h
Will the announcers say "Barcelona" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA W BUY Yes 64¢ $32 4h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 59¢ $47 4h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Ecuador v BUY Yes 47¢ $24 10h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Ecuador vs Germa BUY No 82¢ $10 10h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Ecuador vs Germa BUY No 82¢ $7 13h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor BUY No 89¢ $45 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.78 · official $762.78 (match) · 3500 history records