Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dee…f975 politics 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 660d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$19
other 26% −$4
economics 11% −$2
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 98 -12.7% -21.0% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -28.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -35.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -41.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

660d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage660d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 14 $56 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 15? Mar 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will Feyenoord win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Feb 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will André Pestana win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Nov 25 $56 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Roma win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mike Carey be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Ansem criminal charges in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross more than $70m on 3-day opening wee Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Hunter Biden fined over 100k in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase? Nov 25 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 19d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 19d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 30d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 30d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 37d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 38d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 45d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 45d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 65d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 65d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 74d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 74d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 80d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 81d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $56 84d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $56 84d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 89d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 90d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $56 95d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $56 95d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? SELL No 100¢ $56 96d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 100¢ $15 97d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 100¢ $42 97d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $56 98d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $26 99d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $20 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records