Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0D 0x0df0…6979 crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,435 (-8%) realized −$6,406 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%73W / 83L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$4,445
crypto 16% −$202
sports 11% −$2,232
tech 5% +$203
politics 2% +$29
world 1% +$132
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -14.7% -22.9% 33% 33% -23.9%
all 156 -13.4% -21.6% 47% 31% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 31% -16.5%
10% -29.1% 24% -24.5%
15% -36.0% 14% -31.8%
20% -42.2% 12% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$218 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$477
Realized−$6,406
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses73 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage231d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 73¢ 68¢ $506 $477 −$29 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 21 $611 +$579 +95%
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 16 $1,728 −$673 -39%
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 13 $2,027 −$980 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 25 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 19 $77 −$3 -4%
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 07 $3,409 −$1,527 -45%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 03 $527 −$174 -33%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $746 −$399 -53%
Octra FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 03 $259 −$100 -39%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 03 $98 −$27 -27%
Nets vs. Nuggets Jan 30 $133 +$49 +37%
Kings vs. 76ers Jan 30 $217 +$48 +22%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Jan 29 $98 +$46 +47%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Jan 29 $186 +$44 +24%
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 29 $10 $0 +2%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 29 $1,113 +$74 +7%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jan 29 $98 −$98 -100%
KHL: Amur Khabarovsk vs. Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg Jan 29 $76 −$76 -100%
Nets vs. Suns Jan 28 $145 +$46 +32%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jan 28 $170 +$48 +28%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 20 $950 +$8 +1%
Will Infinex launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 17 $182 −$2 -1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 16 $2,900 −$523 -18%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 10 $2,533 −$2,248 -89%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $88 −$24 -27%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jan 03 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Jan 03 $1,247 −$1,247 -100%
Celtics vs. Kings Jan 02 $1,032 +$258 +25%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jan 02 $642 −$642 -100%
Warriors vs. Hornets Jan 01 $672 +$288 +43%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 01 $1,217 −$761 -63%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 01 $1,233 −$260 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Dec 31 $1,190 +$316 +27%
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale? Dec 31 $5 $0 +1%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 31 $356 +$139 +39%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 30 $2,370 +$816 +34%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $865 +$38 +4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $4,515 −$596 -13%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $2,987 +$188 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 29 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 28 $13 +$2 +15%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Dec 26 $422 −$116 -28%
Will Infinex launch a token in 2025? Dec 26 $2,710 +$2,589 +96%
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch? Dec 25 $1,720 −$819 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 19 $73 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 17 $20 +$13 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 73¢ $252 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 72¢ $165 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 72¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $611 71d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 73d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 75d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 75d
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 75d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 76d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 87d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 88d
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 91d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $73 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $75 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $77 101d
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 106d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 106d
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $75 107d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 22¢ $26 117d
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 118d
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 119d
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 123d
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY Yes $4 123d
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY Yes $1 123d
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY Yes $0 123d
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY Yes $0 123d
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY Yes $1 123d
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY Yes $1 123d
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY Yes $0 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.03 · official $477.03 (match) · 1072 history records