Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0D 0x0df1…eed3 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$54 (-29%) realized −$54 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-25.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-18.1%	-25.9%	44%	44%	-35.6%
≤30d	9	-18.1%	-25.9%	44%	44%	-35.6%
≤90d	9	-18.1%	-25.9%	44%	44%	-35.6%
all	9	-18.1%	-25.9%	44%	44%	-35.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.9%	44%	-35.6%
10%	-33.0%	44%	-41.8%
15%	-39.4%	33%	-47.4%
20%	-45.4%	33%	-52.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$54

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)9 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 9 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 28	$9	−$8	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 28	$54	−$54	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 28	$33	−$33	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 28	$22	+$37	+171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 28	$16	+$4	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 28	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 28	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 28	$22	+$12	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 28	$11	+$9	+86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$33	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$22	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$22	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$11	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records