Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0df2…68e7 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized +$35 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$65
14 days+$41
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$34
politics 17% −$13
sports 17% +$226
finance 13% +$115
tech 12% −$274
world 8% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.2% +14.2% 80% 80% +15.7%
≤30d 13 -11.0% -19.4% 54% 54% +13.2%
≤90d 24 -12.8% -21.1% 54% 50% -8.5%
all 41 -20.3% -27.9% 51% 46% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 46% -10.4%
10% -34.8% 34% -19.0%
15% -41.1% 34% -26.8%
20% -46.9% 24% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$38 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage608d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $97 $115 +$19 (+19%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $99 $83 −$16 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $61 $76 +$15 (+25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $62 $46 −$16 (-25%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 65¢ 36¢ $65 $36 −$30 (-45%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$34 +52%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$14 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $169 +$31 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $293 +$262 +90%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $262 −$61 -23%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 20 $86 +$4 +4%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $245 −$244 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $45 −$44 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $102 +$13 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 05 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $41 +$9 +22%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 01 $112 −$20 -17%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $61 +$39 +64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $64 +$34 +53%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 5? Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Texas vs. Ohio State Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Men's Knockout - Slovakia vs. Finland Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Dolphins vs. Colts Mar 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Mar 19 $14 −$14 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 13 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 19 $52 +$48 +92%
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany Feb 18 $49 +$46 +94%
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Trump shake hands with Aleksandar Vučić at the World Economic For Jan 24 $198 +$24 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7? Jan 08 $50 +$29 +59%
Bills vs. Chiefs Jan 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $27 +$15 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $66 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $69 10d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 23¢ $8 11d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 23¢ $4 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 26¢ $13 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 12d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up $6 13d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 17¢ $17 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 14d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 16d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $293 24d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $201 24d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 34d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $260 34d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes $1 34d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 41d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30? SELL Down 58¢ $115 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.45 · official $460.95 (match) · 133 history records