Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0df3…d82b sports 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%10W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$5
other 19% −$3
politics 17% −$3
crypto 10% −$2
economics 8% −$2
world 7% −$1
culture 7% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 5 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 165 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses10 / 155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage164d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $28 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $88 −$1 -2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 09 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $142 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $79 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 05 $92 $0 -0%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $42 $0 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $90 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 27 $221 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 27 $35 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $38 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 8d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 20d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 28d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 28d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 35d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 97d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $35 98d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 98d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $32 98d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $32 98d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $33 98d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $33 98d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $39 98d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $39 99d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $34 99d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $35 99d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $42 99d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $43 99d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $33 100d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $33 100d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $35 100d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $25 100d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $9 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 625 history records