Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0df8…b67e sports 466 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,347 (-2%) realized −$3,338 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%207W / 257L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$2,083est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$2,757
other 17% +$2,871
world 0% +$599
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -18.6% -26.3% 47% 43% -13.3%
≤30d 169 -1.8% -11.1% 53% 51% -5.4%
≤90d 436 -6.1% -15.1% 46% 44% -7.9%
all 464 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 43% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 43% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 42% -15.8%
15% -25.5% 38% -23.9%
20% -32.8% 34% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$517) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$435 vs −$326 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized−$3,338
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses207 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,083
Open positions2
Markets (closed)464 / 466
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$390
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? No 90¢ 90¢ $277 $275 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 51¢ 50¢ $260 $252 −$8 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,613 +$597 +37%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,122 +$528 +47%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $449 +$39 +9%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $945 +$871 +92%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $248 −$245 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $479 +$8 +2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $352 −$352 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 26 $283 −$283 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $403 −$403 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $478 −$478 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 26 $562 −$562 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $363 +$250 +69%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,025 +$815 +80%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $39 +$13 +33%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $242 +$32 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $301 +$398 +132%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $571 +$209 +37%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $790 +$701 +89%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $316 +$42 +13%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $86 +$90 +104%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $576 +$581 +101%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $241 +$411 +170%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$15 +60%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $545 +$591 +108%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $179 −$179 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $483 −$483 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $318 −$318 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $217 +$147 +68%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$21 +104%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $285 +$308 +108%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $393 +$107 +27%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $687 +$609 +89%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $755 −$755 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $449 +$595 +133%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $618 +$669 +108%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 21 $381 −$381 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $346 −$346 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 51¢ $260 46m
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $278 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1,613 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 68¢ $1,122 17h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,816 18h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $248 20h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $835 21h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $4 22h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $106 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $449 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $47 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $4 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $2 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $97 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $2 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $20 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $2 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 62¢ $115 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 62¢ $50 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 62¢ $19 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 62¢ $5 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 62¢ $299 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $479 24h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 34¢ $29 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 34¢ $38 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 34¢ $15 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 34¢ $133 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 34¢ $0 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 34¢ $0 25h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $169 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.91 · official $571.26 · 3500 history records