Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0D
0x0dfe…6eda
crypto · 124 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$11,213 +65%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,223 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
Net worth$159
Realized+$11,223
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses78 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)113 / 124
History coverage226d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 9 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $54 $50 −$4 (-8%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 16¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners Over 74¢ 65¢ $22 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 30¢ 31¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7PM ET Up 39¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? No 62¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $60 +$31 +51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 +$3 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 Jun 13 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$5 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7PM ET May 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1? May 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 01 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $22 −$14 -64%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,815 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $2,009 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $2,246 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Mar 29 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8PM ET Mar 29 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 28 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 28 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 27? Mar 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 27 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2AM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9PM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6PM ET Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 10? Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 26 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 20 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$15 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET Mar 10 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10AM ET Mar 09 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12PM ET Mar 07 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11AM ET Mar 07 $7 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6PM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +7%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% −$84
politics 15% +$53
world 12% +$11,156
crypto 5% +$49
sports 2% +$64
weather 0% −$10
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% −$17
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $12 11m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 45m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $9 47m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $2 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $4 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $4 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $6 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 SELL 89¢ $21 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $18 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 74¢ $18 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 74¢ $4 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $4 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $11 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $61 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $56 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $17 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 42¢ $10 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 38¢ $10 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 20¢ $10 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $80 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET SELL Down $0 24d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $7 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 24d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +22.6% +10.9% 80% 60% +10.6%
≤30d 9 +5.4% -4.7% 78% 44% +6.4%
≤90d 41 -22.8% -30.2% 49% 27% -9.9%
all 113 +14.8% +3.8% 69% 35% +34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 35% +34.8%
10% -6.1% 21% +21.9%
15% -15.2% 13% +10.1%
20% -23.5% 11% -0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.62 · official $168.62 · 840 history records