Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0dff…f5a5 crypto 105 markets active 21h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-5%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$55
world 22% −$1
other 14% −$33
sports 3% +$17
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.9% -40.2% 36% 27% -6.5%
≤30d 22 -45.5% -50.7% 23% 18% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -60.8% -64.5% 14% 12% -14.1%
all 105 -60.8% -64.5% 14% 12% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.5% 12% -14.1%
10% -67.9% 12% -22.3%
15% -71.0% 12% -29.8%
20% -73.9% 10% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage83d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $97 +$5 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 20 $55 −$4 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 16 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 16 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 09 $4 +$2 +60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 4? May 09 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 27? Apr 28 $66 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 24? Apr 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-13? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $103 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $97 22h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 13? BUY No $1 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? BUY No $1 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY No $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $5 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $3 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $88 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $88 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? BUY No $1 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY No $1 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY No $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 3? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 3? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY No $1 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY No $1 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? SELL Yes 51¢ $21 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $25 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records