Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dff…e495 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-5%) realized −$20 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$14
other 16% $0
crypto 10% $0
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -3.6% -12.8% 38% 0% -15.2%
all 22 -9.2% -17.9% 41% 0% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -15.1%
10% -25.7% 0% -23.2%
15% -32.9% 0% -30.6%
20% -39.5% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage459d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 85¢ 88¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $43 −$16 -37%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $8 $0 -3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 07 $7 $0 -2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $6 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $15 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $9 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $30 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $11 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $2 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $21 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 19h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $0 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $33 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $33 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $31 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $30 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $27 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 31d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 361d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.32 · official $34.32 (match) · 78 history records