Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e02…9136 sports 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%56W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$486
14 days−$372
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$68
sports 46% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -23.8% -31.1% 45% 45% -31.6%
≤30d 58 -15.9% -23.9% 52% 52% -20.6%
≤90d 102 -9.1% -17.8% 55% 55% -12.6%
all 102 -9.1% -17.8% 55% 55% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 55% -12.6%
10% -25.6% 49% -21.0%
15% -32.8% 44% -28.6%
20% -39.4% 29% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$44 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses56 / 46
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage52d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $301 −$301 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $92 +$51 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $92 +$26 +29%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $67 +$46 +69%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 +$26 +64%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $90 +$93 +104%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$22 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $173 −$173 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $36 +$58 +160%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$94 +132%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $50 +$21 +41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $59 +$12 +20%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $189 +$86 +45%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 +$29 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $117 +$144 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $96 +$21 +22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $65 +$30 +47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$6 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$6 +23%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$11 +170%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $36 +$57 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $35 +$6 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$10 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $36 11m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $72 49m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $19 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $92 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 24h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 34¢ $26 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $133 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $168 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $67 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $51 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $41 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $183 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $40 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $50 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $79 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $94 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $94 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $36 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $71 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $71 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4d
Michael Olise: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $59 4d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.04 · official $104.04 (match) · 211 history records