Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e02…70e6 other 143 markets active 4d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-7%) realized −$84 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%37W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$116
14 days−$123
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$39
other 19% −$38
finance 7% −$24
crypto 6% +$1
politics 5% −$15
tech 3% −$4
economics 1% −$1
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -28.2% -35.1% 17% 13% -35.2%
≤30d 136 -17.5% -25.3% 27% 21% -16.8%
≤90d 136 -17.5% -25.3% 27% 21% -16.8%
all 136 -17.5% -25.3% 27% 21% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 21% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 17% -24.8%
15% -39.0% 13% -32.0%
20% -45.0% 11% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses37 / 99
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)136 / 143
History coverage21d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+81%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 12¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $163 −$60 -37%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +352%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -88%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -62%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -18%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -55%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 −$10 -53%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 −$3 -19%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +315%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $76 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $10 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) SELL No 67¢ $0 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 22¢ $1 3d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $24 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $12 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.19 · official $1.19 (match) · 491 history records