Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e05…0f40 crypto 760 markets active 5d ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$885 (-9%) realized −$885 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%450W / 310L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$126
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$167
sports 1% −$16
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -4.7% -13.8% 70% 39% -11.7%
≤30d 350 -9.2% -17.8% 57% 31% -12.7%
≤90d 753 -9.3% -17.9% 60% 38% -11.1%
all 760 -10.0% -18.5% 59% 38% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 38% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 28% -19.6%
15% -33.5% 11% -27.4%
20% -40.0% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$885
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses450 / 310
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)760 / 760
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 760 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$9 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records