Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0E 0x0e08…15eb sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$377 (+38%) realized +$382 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%32W / 8L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$354
crypto 15% +$42
other 7% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +73.0% +56.5% 86% 86% +27.5%
≤30d 7 +73.0% +56.5% 86% 86% +27.5%
≤90d 7 +73.0% +56.5% 86% 86% +27.5%
all 40 +44.8% +31.0% 80% 80% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 80% +25.6%
10% +18.5% 75% +13.6%
15% +7.1% 65% +2.6%
20% -3.4% 52% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$382
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses32 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage184d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 44¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 48¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$21 +200%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $21 +$28 +129%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$38 -93%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 15 $146 +$42 +29%
Spread: Rams (-4.5) Jan 05 $31 +$6 +20%
Spread: Patriots (-13.5) Jan 05 $12 +$11 +90%
Spread: Patriots (-12.5) Jan 05 $15 +$11 +77%
Spread: Patriots (-11.5) Jan 05 $18 +$13 +71%
Spread: Rams (-9.5) Jan 05 $21 +$10 +46%
Spread: Patriots (-10.5) Jan 05 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Rams (-10.5) Jan 05 $21 +$14 +66%
Spread: Rams (-7.5) Jan 05 $26 +$10 +37%
Spread: Patriots (-9.5) Jan 05 $24 +$12 +50%
Saints vs. Falcons Jan 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5) Jan 04 $16 +$32 +198%
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) Jan 04 $24 +$34 +140%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jan 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Georgia (-6.5) Jan 02 $29 +$28 +98%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Jan 02 $36 +$54 +149%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jan 02 $18 +$7 +41%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jan 01 $20 +$9 +45%
Spread: Utah (-14.5) Jan 01 $16 +$18 +108%
Spread: Texas (-7.5) Dec 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Steelers (-3.5) Dec 28 $20 +$23 +112%
Spread: Jaguars (-4.5) Dec 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Ravens vs. Packers Dec 28 $15 +$18 +117%
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5 Dec 28 $12 +$3 +26%
Texans vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 19.5 Dec 28 $10 +$10 +100%
1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5) Dec 26 $10 +$12 +117%
Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 19.5 Dec 26 $19 +$19 +104%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 25 $45 +$14 +31%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Raiders vs. Texans Dec 22 $50 +$6 +12%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 21 $25 +$8 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $37 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $31 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $20 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $49 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $21 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $3 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 41h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $37 41h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $10 43h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $10 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 45h
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL Yes 65¢ $188 157d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 165d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 166d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 166d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 166d
Spread: Rams (-4.5) SELL Rams 99¢ $37 167d
Spread: Patriots (-13.5) SELL Patriots 99¢ $22 167d
Spread: Patriots (-12.5) SELL Patriots 99¢ $26 167d
Spread: Patriots (-11.5) SELL Patriots 99¢ $31 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.39 · official $35.39 (match) · 103 history records