Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e0d…f47e other 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+3%) realized +$78 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%51W / 34L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$123
14 days−$73
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$30
sports 30% +$136
crypto 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -14.3% -22.5% 53% 39% -16.6%
≤30d 41 -13.6% -21.8% 54% 41% -10.8%
≤90d 64 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 47% -7.2%
all 85 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 51% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 51% -6.5%
10% -15.8% 42% -15.5%
15% -23.9% 39% -23.6%
20% -31.4% 27% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses51 / 34
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage100d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$21 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$10 -63%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$10 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 +$12 +36%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$13 -86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$16 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $33 −$4 -13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 +$59 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $69 +$51 +73%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $90 +$13 +14%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $5 −$3 -62%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 18 $10 +$10 +95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 11 $34 +$7 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $304 +$4 +1%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $101 +$28 +27%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $60 +$13 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 +$13 +62%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Canada 96¢ $59 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 20m
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Canada 65¢ $6 27m
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Canada 66¢ $20 28m
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 75¢ $30 40m
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 49¢ $30 51m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $6 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $25 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $48 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $17 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $16 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 43h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 44h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $26 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $33 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 9¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 1¢ $0 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $10 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 64¢ $15 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 63¢ $116 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $50 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.78 · official $70.78 (match) · 205 history records