Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e10…b1ff crypto 490 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$546 (-5%) realized −$577 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%269W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$17
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$151
world 27% −$452
other 13% +$95
weather 11% −$42
politics 10% +$27
economics 2% +$12
tech 2% −$7
culture 0% −$9
finance 0% +$5
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.0% +0.4% 57% 57% -8.4%
≤30d 24 +17.8% +6.6% 67% 58% -1.4%
≤90d 93 +4.2% -5.8% 56% 42% -7.5%
all 483 +1.0% -8.7% 56% 34% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 34% -14.1%
10% -17.4% 24% -22.3%
15% -25.4% 18% -29.8%
20% -32.7% 13% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$577
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses269 / 214
Open positions7
Markets (closed)483 / 490
History coverage218d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 46¢ 54¢ $183 $216 +$33 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+56%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-14%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 19¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $153 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $38 +$8 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +48%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $46 +$36 +78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $95 −$80 -84%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 −$4 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $76 +$43 +57%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $14 +$4 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $36 +$13 +35%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$7 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$16 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $59 +$15 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 28 $12 −$2 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $5 −$1 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $41 +$10 +26%
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? May 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 26 $7 −$3 -38%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $4 +$6 +154%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026? May 23 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $26 +$4 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $19 $0 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 16 $4 +$5 +130%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $63 +$14 +22%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $2 +$5 +224%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 09 $8 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 3? May 09 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 29? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $10 +$28 +285%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $9 $0 -4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? May 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? May 05 $16 −$14 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5? May 05 $9 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 05 $26 +$17 +67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? May 04 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $3 +$2 +67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 30? Apr 30 $6 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Apr 28 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 27? Apr 28 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27? Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $60 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $69 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $44 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $38 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $38 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $17 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $23 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $22 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $23 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $14 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $15 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $24 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $62 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $16 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $114 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.65 · official $262.65 (match) · 2238 history records