Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e10…0de7 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% $0
world 38% −$4
economics 10% $0
sports 2% −$11
finance 2% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 14% -10.1%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 37% 11% -9.9%
≤90d 31 -6.2% -15.1% 29% 6% -9.7%
all 32 -9.1% -17.8% 28% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 6% -10.2%
10% -25.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -32.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage490d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -20%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $39 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $26 +$3 +11%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $23 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $184 −$6 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $38 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $8 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $437 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $16 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $3 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $18 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $21 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $39 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $6 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $23 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $4 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $17 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records