Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0e13…6c3e crypto 383 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,677 (-13%) realized −$4,677 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%85W / 298L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$5,056
other 2% −$633
sports 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -69.0% -72.0% 21% 21% -19.1%
≤30d 14 -69.0% -72.0% 21% 21% -19.1%
≤90d 27 -52.4% -57.0% 26% 26% -48.0%
all 383 -5.5% -14.5% 22% 22% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 22% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 21% -31.3%
15% -30.2% 20% -37.9%
20% -37.0% 20% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$77 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses85 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)383 / 383
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 383 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 21 $21 +$33 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 21 $26 +$44 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 21 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 10 $384 −$384 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 10 $500 +$155 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 16 $109 +$159 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$48 +2375%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 16 $204 +$407 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $59 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records