trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 20 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.2% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $14 | $14 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? | Apr 21 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 9°C on April 21? | Apr 19 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? | Apr 14 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 14? | Apr 12 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Apr 01 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 1? | Apr 01 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 01 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on | Apr 01 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 27? | Mar 27 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 25? | Mar 24 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Mar 22 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on February 28? | Mar 01 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, | Mar 01 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 1 | Feb 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15? | Feb 20 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 16 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on | Jan 24 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? | Jan 22 | $24 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? | Jan 01 | $114 | $0 | +0% |