Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e15…2469 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$21
other 19% +$1
politics 11% +$1
crypto 10% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 15 -2.7% -12.0% 27% 7% -15.4%
≤90d 16 -2.5% -11.8% 31% 6% -14.7%
all 50 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 2% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -12.0%
10% -19.8% 0% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage448d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $27 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $44 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $12 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $45 −$17 -38%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 6? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 02 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 31 $12 $0 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $27 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $26 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 39h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $5 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $24 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $29 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $23 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $25 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $29 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.30 · official $29.30 (match) · 165 history records