Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e15…8ea4 sports 1446 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,091 (+5%) realized +$2,091 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%653W / 793L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$203
14 days+$132
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,888
other 23% −$558
crypto 20% +$578
world 1% −$95
economics 0% −$199
weather 0% −$8
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +66.0% +50.2% 62% 62% +84.8%
≤30d 50 -9.2% -17.8% 38% 38% -1.4%
≤90d 1228 -5.6% -14.6% 43% 42% -9.1%
all 1446 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 44% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 44% -6.0%
10% -22.4% 42% -15.0%
15% -29.9% 40% -23.2%
20% -36.8% 36% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$20 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,091
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses653 / 793
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1446 / 1446
History coverage235d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1446 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $14 +$59 +408%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 −$12 -76%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $70 +$116 +165%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $43 +$39 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$14 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $72 −$71 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 05 $58 −$57 -98%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $64 +$106 +165%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $27 −$26 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $10 +$17 +171%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $99 +$128 +128%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5 May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 0.5 May 30 $49 +$6 +12%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $53 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 29 $24 +$29 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 29 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $97 −$95 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $66 −$35 -54%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 27 $30 +$62 +210%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $15 −$8 -57%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 25 $213 +$46 +22%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $10 +$9 +91%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5 May 25 $30 −$8 -26%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 25 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner May 24 $6 +$4 +58%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 +$25 +83%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $20 +$8 +44%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10 +$30 +291%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5 May 24 $5 −$4 -99%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $47 +$58 +124%
Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5 May 24 $51 −$42 -81%
Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5 May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $3 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $73 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 19¢ $14 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $4 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $16 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $70 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $43 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 4d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $72 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 41¢ $58 15d
Spread: China PR (-1.5) BUY China PR 35¢ $50 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $170 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $64 17d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 32¢ $27 18d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks SELL Shanghai Sharks 99¢ $27 20d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 36¢ $10 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 100¢ $227 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $99 21d
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $55 22d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 22d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $49 22d
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 27¢ $49 22d
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $53 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2558 history records