Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e16…d17e crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-16%) realized −$2 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$2
other 40% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 55% -10.4%
≤30d 20 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 55% -10.4%
≤90d 21 -17.1% -25.0% 57% 52% -15.6%
all 21 -17.1% -25.0% 57% 52% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 52% -15.6%
10% -32.1% 38% -23.7%
15% -38.7% 10% -31.1%
20% -44.7% 10% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage81d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $107 $62 −$45 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P Mar 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.25 · official $62.25 (match) · 65 history records