Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

0E 0x0e16…d17e crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$47 (-16%) realized −$2 · open −$45

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-25.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-12.9%	-21.2%	60%	55%	-10.4%
≤30d	20	-12.9%	-21.2%	60%	55%	-10.4%
≤90d	21	-17.1%	-25.0%	57%	52%	-15.6%
all	21	-17.1%	-25.0%	57%	52%	-15.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.0%	52%	-15.6%
10%	-32.1%	38%	-23.7%
15%	-38.7%	10%	-31.1%
20%	-44.7%	10%	-37.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late -11% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized−$2

Unrealized−$45

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage81d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$107	$62	−$45 (-42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 16	$25	+$5	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$6	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 16	$16	+$5	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 16	$11	+$3	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 16	$16	+$2	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$1	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$1	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 16	$15	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 16	$7	+$1	+21%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P	Mar 28	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$5	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	55¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	37¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Up	68¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	SELL Up	10¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	SELL Up	29¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	SELL Down	50¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.25 · official $62.25 (match) · 65 history records