Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e19…270a crypto 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$224 (-13%) realized −$206 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%53W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$285
14 days−$228
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$313
crypto 21% −$112
sports 15% +$207
world 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -34.9% -41.1% 27% 23% -27.4%
≤30d 186 -23.0% -30.4% 28% 25% -22.1%
≤90d 186 -23.0% -30.4% 28% 25% -22.1%
all 186 -23.0% -30.4% 28% 25% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 25% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 21% -29.6%
15% -43.1% 18% -36.4%
20% -48.7% 15% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses53 / 133
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)186 / 191
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 47¢ 28¢ $43 $26 −$17 (-40%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$27 +440%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 +$13 +504%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$17 +33%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $22 −$10 -46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $37 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $12 +$10 +85%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -57%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +208%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$17 +24%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 +$11 +85%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 +$32 +380%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$9 -68%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $44 +$112 +253%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $240 −$237 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $146 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -84%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 8m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 21m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 26m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria en BUY 33¢ $10 31m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.84 · official $75.85 · 701 history records