trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 61¢ | 60¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 54¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 46¢ | 46¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 26¢ | 28¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 31¢ | 32¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 53¢ | 54¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$1 | +23% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$6 | -60% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$2 | +44% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 09 | $9 | +$8 | +80% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 50% | 50% | -21.5% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 50% | 50% | -21.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 50% | 50% | -21.5% |
| all | 5 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 60% | 60% | +4.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.4% | 60% | +4.7% |
| 10% | -5.6% | 60% | -5.3% |
| 15% | -14.7% | 40% | -14.4% |
| 20% | -23.1% | 20% | -22.8% |