Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0e1d…dc67 crypto 713 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-5%) realized −$217 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate69%489W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$213
sports 7% −$38
other 4% −$5
weather 1% +$12
world 0% −$8
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 36% +0.2%
≤30d 18 -26.1% -33.2% 39% 22% -10.4%
≤90d 21 -36.7% -42.7% 33% 19% -16.1%
all 704 -3.8% -12.9% 69% 32% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 32% -12.5%
10% -21.3% 25% -20.9%
15% -28.9% 22% -28.5%
20% -35.8% 22% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$217
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses489 / 215
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)704 / 713
History coverage218d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 78¢ 100¢ $156 $200 +$44 (+28%)
Will Misa Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage Yes 43¢ 1¢ $97 $3 −$94 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 30? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $139 $0 +0%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $64 +$6 +10%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $21 −$20 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $13 +$20 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots Jun 27 $5 +$8 +158%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $47 +$36 +76%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 26 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 26 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 26 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 26 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 26 $3 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 25 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 25 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 25 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 25 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 25 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 25 $3 +$3 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $39 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $99 1h
Will Misa Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage BUY Yes 43¢ $97 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 34¢ $69 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 34¢ $69 22h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $61 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.67 · official $206.67 (match) · 1756 history records