Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0E 0x0e1f…f40b crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate73%46W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$10
politics 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.8% -10.3% 68% 61% -9.7%
≤30d 36 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 58% -8.9%
≤90d 36 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 58% -8.9%
all 63 -0.4% -9.9% 73% 52% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 52% -10.1%
10% -18.5% 27% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 13% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses46 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage175d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $77 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$19 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 09 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 09 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jan 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 14? Jan 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $69 −$36 -52%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 7? Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? Jan 06 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 6? Jan 06 $17 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records