Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e20…c4b9 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1
other 18% −$6
politics 11% +$2
crypto 5% −$5
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 9 +3.3% -6.6% 44% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 10 -7.1% -15.9% 40% 10% -9.1%
all 43 -6.3% -15.2% 47% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 9% -10.8%
10% -23.3% 7% -19.3%
15% -30.7% 2% -27.1%
20% -37.5% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage452d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $34 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in June? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 25 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 13 $8 −$4 -57%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $3 $0 +9%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $9 +$3 +29%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $34 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $31 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $38 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $38 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $38 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $38 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $38 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $38 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 82¢ $38 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 79¢ $36 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $33 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $4 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $0 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $4 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records