Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e23…0bdc other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,176 (-1%) realized −$1,176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$789per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$19
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,016
politics 37% −$43
sports 9% −$151
world 3% +$24
crypto 2% +$3
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -1.6% -10.9% 10% 0% -10.9%
all 135 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 11% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 11% -10.6%
10% -18.7% 11% -19.1%
15% -26.5% 9% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,068) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$930
Realized−$1,176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage160d
Avg bet$789
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $642 $642 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $288 $288 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,015 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,058 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,647 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $293 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $413 +$1 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,178 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,361 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $863 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $3,822 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 01 $720 +$1 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,027 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $863 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $3,984 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,004 −$2 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $1,144 −$1,144 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $88 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Apr 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $979 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $202 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $202 3h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $513 20h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $514 22h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $643 27h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $874 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $875 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $958 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $959 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $903 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $905 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,078 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,079 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $609 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $609 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,042 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $916 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $918 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,007 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,008 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $996 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $998 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $896 15d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $898 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $929.87 · official $929.87 (match) · 463 history records